Are movies released in the winter really that bad?
Yes. We can capture the essence of movie quality using two metrics for movie success - box office and critical acclaim. Can a movie be good if it does not do well in the box office? Absolutely. Can a movie be good if it is not critically acclaimed? For many, yes. But most people can agree that a movie that performs poorly with critics and at the box office is, well, bad.
In the first graph (above) we examine the number of Oscar Best Picture nominations by month. That is, the number of movies released (limited or wide) that month receiving nominations for best picture, going back to 1999. There is only one nomination in the first three months of the year, and a total of three for the first half of the year. There are almost as many December movies nominated as there are for the rest of the year! Obviously the Oscars are not the ultimate authority on movie quality, but they do represent a good general sample. Looking at any other awards show or a critics top 10 list would show almost the same correlation.
In the second graph (above) we examine the release date of the box office leaders. That is, the number of movies released (again, limited or wide) that month finishing in the top ten at the box office for the year. The summer months have by far the most blockbusters, with November and December close behind. The first few months of the year are nearly devoid of any top grossing films.
These graphs verify what we already suspected: there are not a lot of good movies released in the winter. Obviously there are exceptions, but they are just that, deviations from the norm. Generally, more quality films are released either in the summer or at the end of the year.
Why are Winter Movies So Bad?
Because studios plan it that way. There are key box office advantages to releasing a movie in either the late fall or summer as opposed to other months.
In the summer kids, teens, and young adults are out of school. This is a demographic that all of a sudden has a lot more free time, and is able to spend more of that time at the movies. In addition, two big holidays, memorial day and independence day, mean that the whole family can head to the theater. A cursory examination of past summer blockbusters reveals that nearly all of them are targeted to some or most of this younger group of viewers.
The next largest vacation, for both those in and out of school, comes in the late fall for Thanksgiving and Christmas. Those holidays by themselves, and the time people take off around them, make this a profitable time to release a movie. But, there is another motive behind holiday and end of the year releases, and it is slightly more complicated.
Winning or being nominated for an award like the Oscars or Golden Globes can mean free national exposure and, the real prize for studios, an increased showing at the box office. For example, there is a very large and noticeable increase in the daily box office take for No Country for Old Men, starting around January 22nd, the day the Oscar nominations were announced, and continuing through to the ceremony. If you were standing in a video store trying to decide between two movies that looked good, but you had never heard of, which one would you choose, the one with 5 Oscar Nominations (conveniently mentioned on the box) or the one with none? Studios know that awards are profitable and so they position their movies to win, or at least be nominated.
Obviously the quality of the movie is the most important factor in getting nominated for an award. The problem is that every year there are plenty of worthy movies, and only a handful get chosen. Voters must decide which or the many movies get nominated and ultimately win. This is were the release date and a little psychology comes into play. The more recent or fresh a movie is, the more likely it is to be looked upon favorably.
To illustrate this concept imagine that you just purchased a new pair of sneakers, and you are comparing them to your old pair. Which one is better? Obviously the new pair, as the old ones are beat up, uncomfortable, and starting to smell. What about when the older pair was new, then would they compare? Maybe, if you had both pairs in front of you, fresh from the store, but it has been so long since you bought the older pair that you really can't remember when they were new. All you can think of is the scuffed sides and worn treads.
Movies are similar. They do not get as worn or start to smell, but our conception of them changes as time goes on. As the memorable scenes play through our heads they become less fantastic and more familiar. For that reason, if asked to choose a favorite between movies of otherwise similar quality, you are much more likely to choose the one seen more recently. Because all of the major award shows are towards the end of the year movies are released to coincide, so they can be fresh in the minds of voters.
The caveat is that among award worthy movies very few are of "similar quality", as all have respective strengths and weaknesses. The bottom line is that the release date of a movie has a relatively minor impact on its award showing, but it has enough of one that studios take notice and plan accordingly.
Because studios have a limited number of "good" movies they save the best for the times in which they can maximize the returns, and dole out the rest accordingly. January and February in particular get the worst of the offerings because they are before the Oscars. People are still talking and speculating about the previous years movies. Any newly released films would be overshadowed by the current Oscar contenders, and forgotten a year down the road. So studios release their movies that they know will be forgotten anyway.
In the end, all of this planning and strategical maneuvering leaves the movie going public adrift at sea, floating along at the mercy of the current. Thank god for Netflix.
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